Doom Tribune: latest doom

Preacher: No 2026 World Cup, 'Because There Will Be a Rapture.' The Final Went to Extra Time

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“My prophecy cannot pass the 14th of May.” — Joshua Mhlakela (South African preacher, in YouTube interviews)

Verdict: April 4-5 passed, then May 14. Spain won the World Cup final on July 19, in a tournament he said the rapture would cancel.

Due: April 4-5, 2026 (hard stop: May 14, 2026) · Status: Busted

Microsoft AI Chief Mustafa Suleyman, 2026: Most Lawyer and Accountant Tasks Fully Automated in 18 Months

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“So white-collar work, where you're sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person — most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months.” — Mustafa Suleyman (CEO, Microsoft AI; DeepMind co-founder)

Due: 12 to 18 months from February 2026 · Status: Upcoming

AI Safety Researcher Roman Yampolskiy, 2025: 'In Five Years' Unemployment Will Hit 'Not 10%... but 99%'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“in five years, we're looking at a world where we have levels of unemployment we've never seen before. Not talking about 10%, but 99%” — Roman Yampolskiy (computer scientist, University of Louisville)

Due: By about September 2030 (five years from September 2025) · Status: Upcoming

Ex-Google X Executive, 2025: 'The Next 15 Years Will Be Hell Before We Get to Heaven'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“The next 15 years will be hell before we get to heaven” — Mo Gawdat (former chief business officer, Google X; author)

Verdict: Due from 2027. The start date is 'as early as,' and the heaven part is not on the clock.

Due: Starting as early as 2027, lasting about 15 years · Status: Upcoming

Ghana's 'Ebo Noah' Built Arks for a Global Flood From December 25, 2025, Then Postponed It on Christmas Eve

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

He had previously warned that the world would experience heavy, uninterrupted rainfall beginning on Christmas Day, lasting for three years, in a scenario he said mirrored the biblical story of Noah. — Ebo Noah (Evans Eshun; self-proclaimed Ghanaian prophet)

Verdict: No flood. On December 24 he called off the gathering at the arks, and on December 26 NewsGhana reported Ghana 'continued its normal operations.'

Due: December 25, 2025 · Status: Busted

Bill Gates, February 2025: Will We Need Humans? 'Not for Most Things'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“Not for most things” — Bill Gates (Microsoft co-founder)

Due: Over the next decade (by early 2035) · Status: Upcoming

Harry Dent, June 2024: 'We're Going to See the S&P Go Down 86% From the Top, and the Nasdaq 92%'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“I think we're going to see the S&P go down 86% from the top, and the Nasdaq 92%.” — Harry S. Dent Jr. (economist, financial author and newsletter publisher)

Verdict: The S&P 500 gained more than 16% in 2025, its third straight year of strong gains, according to CNN.

Due: Bottom between early and mid-2025 · Status: Busted

Harry Dent Promises 'the Biggest Single Crash Year We'll See in Our Lifetimes'; the S&P 500 Gains 23%

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we'll see in our lifetimes.” — Harry S. Dent Jr. (economist, financial author and newsletter publisher)

Verdict: No crash. CNN, December 31, 2024: 'The S&P 500 gained more than 23% this year after rising 24% in 2023.'

Due: 2024 · Status: Busted

Stability AI CEO, 2023: India's Outsourced Coders 'Will Be Gone in the Next Year or Two'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“outsourced coders up to level three programmers will be gone in the next year or two, whereas in France, you'll never fire a developer” — Emad Mostaque (founder and then CEO, Stability AI)

Verdict: Nasscom's annual review put India's tech workforce at 5.8 million in the year to March 2025, with 126,000 net new hires.

Due: Within a year or two of July 2023 (by mid-2025) · Status: Busted

The Conference Board Forecasts a 'Recession Starting in Mid-2023'; the NBER Records No Recession

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the US economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023.” — The Conference Board (US economics team; Economy Watch report by senior economist Erik Lundh)

Verdict: No recession started in mid-2023. The NBER chronology has no business-cycle peak after February 2020.

Due: Mid-2023 · Status: Busted

Stanley Druckenmiller, September 2022: 'I Will Be Stunned If We Don't Have a Recession in '23'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“I will be stunned if we don't have a recession in '23” — Stanley Druckenmiller (investor, Duquesne Family Office)

Verdict: No recession in 2023. The NBER chronology has no business-cycle peak after February 2020.

Due: By the end of 2023 · Status: Busted

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini, September 2022: 'It's Going to Be Severe, Long, and Ugly'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“It's not going to be a short and shallow recession; it's going to be severe, long, and ugly” — Nouriel Roubini (NYU economist, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates)

Verdict: There was no U.S. recession in 2022 or 2023. The NBER chronology has no business-cycle peak after February 2020.

Due: From the end of 2022 through 2023 · Status: Busted

Fannie Mae, September 2022: Forecast Is 'a Moderate Recession Beginning in the First Quarter of 2023'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“Inflation's entrenchment – and the policy action likely required of the Fed – confirms the expectation in our forecast of a moderate recession beginning in the first quarter of 2023.” — Doug Duncan (Chief Economist, Fannie Mae) and the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group

Verdict: No recession began in Q1 2023 or since. The NBER chronology has no business-cycle peak after February 2020.

Due: First quarter of 2023 · Status: Busted

Economist Steve Hanke, August 2022: 'We're Going to Have One Whopper of a Recession in 2023'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“We're going to have one whopper of a recession in 2023.” — Steve Hanke (professor of applied economics, Johns Hopkins University)

Verdict: No recession in 2023 or 2024. The NBER chronology has no business-cycle peak after February 2020.

Due: 2023 · Status: Busted

Deutsche Bank, April 2022: 'We Will Get a Major Recession' - Weeks After Calling for a Mild One

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“We will get a major recession, but our strongly held view is that the sooner and the more aggressively the Fed acts, the less longer-term damage to the economy there will be” — Deutsche Bank Research (U.S. economics team; note of April 26, 2022)

Verdict: No recession arrived in late 2023 or early 2024. The NBER chronology has no business-cycle peak after February 2020.

Due: Late 2023 to early 2024 · Status: Busted

Andrew Yang, 2019: '⅓ of American Workers Will Lose Their Jobs to Automation by 2030'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“⅓ of American workers will lose their jobs to automation by 2030.” — Andrew Yang (entrepreneur; 2020 Democratic presidential candidate)

Due: By 2030 · Status: Upcoming

Paul Ehrlich, 2018: A 'Shattering Collapse of Civilisation' Is 'a Near Certainty in the Next Few Decades'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“It is a near certainty in the next few decades, and the risk is increasing continually as long as perpetual growth of the human enterprise remains the goal of economic and political systems” — Paul R. Ehrlich (biologist, Stanford University; author of The Population Bomb)

Due: 'The next few decades' from March 2018 (filed as 2048) · Status: Upcoming

Harvard's James Anderson, 2018: Chance of Any Permanent Arctic Ice After 2022 'Is Essentially Zero'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero” — James Anderson (atmospheric chemist, Harvard University)

Verdict: Permanent ice outlasted 2022. In 2023 the oldest Arctic sea ice (more than 4 years old) still covered 36,000 square miles, Forbes reported from satellite data - second-lowest on record, but not zero.

Due: After 2022 · Status: Busted

Stephen Hawking, 2017: Humanity 'Only Has 100 Years Before We Need to Colonize Another Planet'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

the human race only has 100 years before we need to colonize another planet — Stephen Hawking (theoretical physicist, University of Cambridge)

Due: Within 100 years of 2017 · Status: Upcoming

Investor Vinod Khosla, 2017: 'The Role of the Radiologist Will Be Obsolete in Five Years'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“The role of the radiologist will be obsolete in five years” — Vinod Khosla (venture capitalist, Khosla Ventures; Sun Microsystems co-founder)

Verdict: Radiologists were not obsolete by 2022. The New Republic reported in 2024 that the field faced 'a historic labor shortage.'

Due: Within five years of April 2017 · Status: Busted

Paul Krugman, Election Night 2016: When Will Markets Recover? 'A First-Pass Answer Is Never'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.” — Paul Krugman (economist and New York Times columnist)

Verdict: Never lasted about a day. The Dow set 17 record highs after Election Day and finished 2016 up 13.4%.

Due: Never (from November 9, 2016) · Status: Busted

Cameron and Osborne, May 2016: 'A Vote to Leave Is a Vote for Recession.' Britain Voted Leave. No Recession

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“A vote to leave is a vote for recession.” — David Cameron (Prime Minister) and George Osborne (Chancellor of the Exchequer), with HM Treasury

Verdict: Britain voted Leave on June 23, 2016. The ONS's first estimate put growth at 0.5% in the very next quarter, and at 1.8% for 2017.

Due: The weeks and months after a June 23, 2016 Leave vote · Status: Busted

Geoffrey Hinton, 2016: 'People Should Stop Training Radiologists Now.' Five Years On, They Were Scarce

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“People should stop training radiologists now. It’s just completely obvious that within five years, deep learning is going to do a lot better than radiologists” — Geoffrey Hinton (computer scientist, University of Toronto and Google)

Verdict: Radiology kept training radiologists. Eight years on, a resident Hinton had told to reconsider wrote that the field faced 'a historic labor shortage'.

Due: Within five years (by 2021) · Status: Busted

Robert Kiyosaki, 2015: 'I've Been Predicting Since '02 That We Would See a Stock Market Crash in '16'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“I've been predicting since '02 that we would see a stock market crash in '16.” — Robert T. Kiyosaki (author, Rich Dad Poor Dad)

Verdict: No crash in 2016. The Economic Times: '2016 saw significant market growth rather than the collapse he envisioned.'

Due: 2016 · Status: Busted

UN Food Official, 2014: All of the World's Top Soil 'Could Be Gone Within 60 Years'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

if current rates of degradation continue all of the world's top soil could be gone within 60 years — Maria-Helena Semedo (deputy director-general, UN Food and Agriculture Organization)

Verdict: Due in 2074. The clock comes with a condition: 'if current rates of degradation continue.'

Due: By 2074 (60 years from December 2014) · Status: Upcoming

Musk, 2014: Risk of AI Doing 'Something Seriously Dangerous' Is 'in the Five Year Timeframe. 10 Years at Most'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“The risk of something seriously dangerous happening is in the five year timeframe. 10 years at most” — Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX (comment on Edge.org, sent to John Brockman)

Verdict: Ten years at most ran out in November 2024. AI made a lot of headlines and a lot of slide decks; the seriously dangerous something has not been filed.

Due: Within five years (November 2019), ten at most (November 2024) · Status: Busted

Gartner, 2014: 'One in Three Jobs Will Be Converted to Software, Robots and Smart Machines by 2025'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“Gartner predicts one in three jobs will be converted to software, robots and smart machines by 2025” — Peter Sondergaard (research director, Gartner)

Verdict: 2025 arrived with US unemployment at 4.1% and payroll employment up 2.2 million over 2024, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Due: By 2025 · Status: Busted

Marc Faber, April 2014: 'Very Likely' an '87-Type Crash in the Next 12 Months. The Next 12 Months Declined

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“I think it's very likely that we're seeing, in the next 12 months, an '87-type of crash” — Marc Faber (publisher, The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report; on CNBC's Futures Now)

Verdict: The 12 months ran out on April 10, 2015 without an '87-type crash. He had called the same crash in August 2013.

Due: Within 12 months of April 10, 2014 · Status: Busted

Harry Dent Tries Again: a Crash to Dow 6,000. The Dow Goes the Other Way, to 19,762

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“I think we see another correction, crash, that is larger than the last one” — Harry S. Dent Jr. (author of The Demographic Cliff)

Verdict: The Dow ended 2016 at 19,762.60, up 13.4% for the year.

Due: By 2016 · Status: Busted

Princeton Epidemic Model Says Facebook Will Lose 80% of Its Users; Facebook Reaches 2.13 Billion Instead

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“Extrapolating the best fit model into the future suggests that Facebook will undergo a rapid decline in the coming years, losing 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017.” — John Cannarella and Joshua A. Spechler (Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University)

Verdict: Facebook reported 2.13 billion monthly active users as of December 31, 2017, up 14% on the year before.

Due: Between 2015 and 2017 · Status: Busted

Paul Beckwith, March 23, 2013: 'For the Record - I Do Not Think That Any Sea Ice Will Survive This Summer'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer.” — Paul Beckwith (PhD student and part-time professor, University of Ottawa)

Verdict: Plenty survived. NSIDC put the 2013 minimum, on September 13, at 5.10 million square kilometres - more than the record low of 2012.

Due: Summer 2013 · Status: Busted

Aftershock Author: 'The Data Is Clear, 50 Percent Unemployment, a 90 Percent Stock Market Drop' Starting 2013

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“The data is clear, 50 percent unemployment, a 90 percent stock market drop, and 100 percent annual inflation… starting in 2013.” — Robert Wiedemer (economist; co-author, Aftershock)

Verdict: 2013 started without any of the three. The Dow finished the year at a record 16,576.66, up 26.5%.

Due: Starting in 2013 · Status: Busted

Eric Jackson, June 2012: 'In Five to Eight Years' Facebook Will 'Disappear in the Way That Yahoo Has'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“In five to eight years they are going to disappear in the way that Yahoo has disappeared” — Eric Jackson (founder, Ironfire Capital)

Verdict: Facebook grew instead. It reported 2.80 billion monthly users at the end of 2020, up 12% on the year.

Due: Five to eight years from June 2012 (2017-2020) · Status: Busted

Paul Krugman, May 2012: 'Greek Euro Exit, Very Possibly Next Month,' Then Possibly the End of the Euro

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.” — Paul Krugman (economist and New York Times columnist)

Verdict: Greece did not leave in June 2012, or after. The European Commission still lists it as a euro-area member since January 1, 2001.

Due: June 2012 ('next month') · Status: Busted

Self-Proclaimed 'Dad' Promised 'Cities Falling' by June 30, 2012, and Followers Who Walk Through Walls

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“It is getting closer and we will see the catastrophes. What you have seen is nothing. What is coming is cities falling.” — Jose Luis de Jesus Miranda (leader of Creciendo en Gracia, ministry broadcast)

Verdict: June 30, 2012 was a Saturday. The cities stayed up, and nobody walked through a wall.

Due: Saturday, June 30, 2012 · Status: Busted

Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, 2012: In 50 Years Only 10 Institutions Worldwide Will Deliver Higher Education

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

In 50 years, he says, there will be only 10 institutions in the world delivering higher education — Sebastian Thrun (Stanford professor; founder of Udacity)

Due: 50 years from 2012 (2062) · Status: Upcoming

Pulkovo Observatory Astronomer, 2012: Earth Will See 'the Temperature Drop in Approximately 2014'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“The Earth as a planet will henceforward have negative balance in the energy budget which will result in the temperature drop in approximately 2014.” — Habibullo Abdussamatov (head of space research, Pulkovo Observatory, St. Petersburg)

Verdict: NASA and NOAA, January 16, 2015: 'The year 2014 ranks as Earth's warmest since 1880.'

Due: Approximately 2014 · Status: Busted

Gordon Chang, December 2011: 'The Mighty Communist Party of China Will Fall in 2012. Bet on It'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“Instead of 2011, the mighty Communist Party of China will fall in 2012. Bet on it.” — Gordon G. Chang (author, The Coming Collapse of China)

Verdict: 2012 ended with the Communist Party installing a new general secretary rather than falling.

Due: 2012 · Status: Busted

ECRI, September 30, 2011: A New Recession, and 'Nothing That Policy Makers Can Do to Head It Off'

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

“Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there's nothing that policy makers can do to head it off.” — Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI; co-founder Lakshman Achuthan)

Verdict: No recession. The NBER's chronology has the expansion that began in June 2009 running unbroken to a peak in February 2020.

Due: Starting by the first half of 2012 · Status: Busted

Harry Dent Calls a Crash to Dow 3,000; the Dow Closes the Year at a Record 16,576

2026-10-09T00:00:00Z

the Dow will fall below 10,000 in the near term before crashing to around 3,000 in 2013. — Harry S. Dent Jr. (founder, HS Dent; author of The Great Crash Ahead)

Verdict: The Dow ended 2013 at 16,576.66, a record close and a 26.5% gain for the year.

Due: 2013 · Status: Busted