China Needs 200 to 360 Million Tons of Imported Grain by 2030
Lester Brown, 1996: China Will Need 200 to 360 Million Tons of Grain Imports by 2030, and It Won't Be There
The Worldwatch Institute founder said falling water tables and lost cropland would open a gap the world could not fill, pushing grain prices up for poor importing countries.
What was said
“This could lead to imports of somewhere between roughly 200 and 360 million tons of grain by the year 2030.”
— Lester Brown (president, Worldwatch Institute; author of Who Will Feed China?) · said Mar 8, 1996 · due By the year 2030
Due in 2030. Brown's range is set against the other forecast in the same studio: 40 or 50 million tons.
The Story
Said on public radio's Living on Earth, week of March 8, 1996. Brown went on: 'the grain is not likely going to be there on that scale, and what I think we're going to see is much higher grain prices.'
Robert Paarlberg of Wellesley College, on the same programme, expected China to import 'probably 40 or 50 million tons by the year 2020 or 2030'. Both forecasts are on file here only through Brown's. Related food forecasts: population-bomb-1970s, ehrlich-england-2000.
Receipts
- China Food Round Table - Living on Earth (week of March 8, 1996)accessed 2026-10-09