A Leave Vote Pushes Britain Into Recession
Cameron and Osborne, May 2016: 'A Vote to Leave Is a Vote for Recession.' Britain Voted Leave. No Recession
The Prime Minister and Chancellor, citing new Treasury analysis, said a Leave vote would trigger a 'DIY recession' within months. The economy grew in the next quarter and the next year.
What was said
“A vote to leave is a vote for recession.”
— David Cameron (Prime Minister) and George Osborne (Chancellor of the Exchequer), with HM Treasury · said May 23, 2016 · due The weeks and months after a June 23, 2016 Leave vote
Britain voted Leave on June 23, 2016. The ONS's first estimate put growth at 0.5% in the very next quarter, and at 1.8% for 2017.
The fine print
Written for the Telegraph and republished by the government on May 23, 2016, a month before the referendum. It said the Treasury's analysis 'shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession', called it 'a DIY recession', and set out 'what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to leave'. The central Treasury scenario had GDP 3.6% lower after two years. The UK did not formally leave the EU until January 2020, but the forecast was about the vote itself.
Sources
- Brexit would put our economy in serious danger: article by David Cameron and George Osborne - GOV.UK (May 23, 2016)accessed 2026-10-09
- HM Treasury analysis: the immediate economic impact of leaving the EU - GOV.UK (May 23, 2016)accessed 2026-10-09
- Gross Domestic Product, preliminary estimate: July to Sept 2016 - Office for National Statisticsaccessed 2026-10-09
- Gross domestic product, preliminary estimate: October to December 2017 - Office for National Statisticsaccessed 2026-10-09