Facebook Loses 80% of Its Peak Users Between 2015 and 2017
Princeton Epidemic Model Says Facebook Will Lose 80% of Its Users; Facebook Reaches 2.13 Billion Instead
Two engineering researchers ran Google search data through an epidemic model and diagnosed the network with a terminal case of 'immunity.' It ended 2017 with 2.13 billion users.
What was said
“Extrapolating the best fit model into the future suggests that Facebook will undergo a rapid decline in the coming years, losing 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017.”
— John Cannarella and Joshua A. Spechler (Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University) · said Jan 17, 2014 · due Between 2015 and 2017
Facebook reported 2.13 billion monthly active users as of December 31, 2017, up 14% on the year before.
The Story
The preprint fitted an 'infectious recovery' SIR disease model to Google searches for 'MySpace,' then for 'Facebook.' The Guardian's version: Facebook 'has spread like an infectious disease but we are slowly becoming immune to its attractions, and the platform will be largely abandoned by 2017.'
Facebook's data scientists answered by using the same method to forecast the demise of Princeton University. Other internet doom: metcalfe-internet-1996.
Receipts
- Epidemiological modeling of online social network dynamics - Cannarella & Spechler, arXiv:1401.4208 (January 2014)accessed 2026-10-09
- Facebook will lose 80% of users by 2017, say Princeton researchers - The Guardian (January 22, 2014)accessed 2026-10-09
- Facebook Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results - Facebook press release (January 31, 2018)accessed 2026-10-09