Communist Party of China Falls in 2012. Bet on It
Gordon Chang, December 2011: 'The Mighty Communist Party of China Will Fall in 2012. Bet on It'
Admitting his 2011 deadline had passed, the author moved it twelve months. 'Still, I'm only off by a year,' read the subhead.
What was said
“Instead of 2011, the mighty Communist Party of China will fall in 2012. Bet on it.”
— Gordon G. Chang (author, The Coming Collapse of China) · said Dec 29, 2011 · due 2012
2012 ended with the Communist Party installing a new general secretary rather than falling.
The Story
Published in Foreign Policy at 11:26 p.m. on December 29, 2011, two days before the first deadline expired. The subhead: 'I admit it: My prediction that the Communist Party would fall by 2011 was wrong. Still, I'm only off by a year.'
He also wrote: 'the Chinese government could dissolve like the autocracies in Tunisia and Egypt.' The Diplomat, 2015: 'China didn't collapse, as we all know.' Original deadline: chang-china-collapse-2011.
Receipts
As of Oct 9, 2026
since it didn't happen
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