A U.S. Recession Starting in Mid-2023
The Conference Board Forecasts a 'Recession Starting in Mid-2023'; the NBER Records No Recession
The business research group behind the Leading Economic Index forecast for months that a US recession was coming. In April 2023 it put the start at mid-year and cut its Q2 forecast to -1.8%.
What was said
“The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the US economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023.”
— The Conference Board (US economics team; Economy Watch report by senior economist Erik Lundh) · said Apr 14, 2023 · due Mid-2023
No recession started in mid-2023. The NBER chronology has no business-cycle peak after February 2020.
The Story
The same report: 'we are also downgrading our forecast for Q2 2023 from -0.9 percent to -1.8 percent. This is partially due to reverberations associated with the banking crisis.' In February the group's Ataman Ozyildirim had said 'the LEI continues to signal recession in the near term' (UPI).
Other 2023 calls: fanniemae-recession-2023, druckenmiller-recession-2023, bloomberg-recession-2023.