World Oil Peak Day: Thanksgiving, November 24, 2005
Princeton Geologist Named Thanksgiving Day 2005 'World Oil Peak Day.' Output Kept Climbing for Years
Kenneth Deffeyes picked the exact day world oil production would peak and promised decline, 'at first slowly, and then more rapidly.' By 2018 the world was producing 100.4 million barrels a day.
What was said
“I nominate Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 24, 2005, as World Oil Peak Day”
— Kenneth S. Deffeyes (professor emeritus of geology, Princeton; author of Beyond Oil) · said 2005 · due Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005
Production did not turn down. The EIA estimated world crude oil and other liquids output at 100.4 million barrels a day in 2018, up 2.4 million on 2017.
Then vs Now
Promised: world oil output peaks on November 24, 2005, then declines
World crude oil and other liquids production averaged 100.4 million barrels a day in 2018 (as of 2018)
The Story
From the opening of his 2005 book Beyond Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak, as quoted by The New York Times. He went on: 'World oil production is going to decline, at first slowly, and then more rapidly.' He took the lecture circuit with the date in the title, at NJIT and Caltech among others.
Thanksgiving was chosen so 'We can pause and give thanks for the years from 1901 to 2005 when abundant oil and natural gas fueled enormous changes in our society.' Other oil forecasts: carter-oil-reserves-1977, duncan-olduvai-2030.
Receipts
- The End of Oil - The New York Times (Robert B. Semple Jr., March 1, 2006; reproduced by ecolo.org)accessed 2026-10-09
- The Impending Oil Shortage - NJIT Technology and Society Forum (September 19, 2005)accessed 2026-10-09
- Lauritsen Lecture: Ken Deffeyes: The Peak of World Oil Production: Thanksgiving Day, 2005 - Caltechaccessed 2026-10-09
- This Week in Petroleum, January 9, 2019 - U.S. Energy Information Administrationaccessed 2026-10-09
As of Oct 9, 2026
since it didn't happen
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