A 'Major Recession' in Late 2023 to Early 2024
Deutsche Bank, April 2022: 'We Will Get a Major Recession' - Weeks After Calling for a Mild One
In a note titled 'Why the coming recession will be worse than expected,' Germany's biggest bank upgraded its U.S. call from mild to major, timed for late 2023 into early 2024.
What was said
“We will get a major recession, but our strongly held view is that the sooner and the more aggressively the Fed acts, the less longer-term damage to the economy there will be”
— Deutsche Bank Research (U.S. economics team; note of April 26, 2022) · said Apr 26, 2022 · due Late 2023 to early 2024
No recession arrived in late 2023 or early 2024. The NBER chronology has no business-cycle peak after February 2020.
The Story
Fortune: the bank 'now expects "a major recession" in late 2023 to early 2024, according to a Tuesday note to investors titled "Why the coming recession will be worse than expected."' It expected recovery to start by mid-2024. Other calls: druckenmiller-recession-2023, hanke-recession-2023, bloomberg-recession-2023.
Receipts
- Deutsche Bank just predicted 'a major recession' weeks after forecasting a 'mild' one - Fortune (April 27, 2022)accessed 2026-10-09
- US economy on brink of 'major recession,' Deutsche Bank warns - Fox Business (April 2022)accessed 2026-10-09
- US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions - National Bureau of Economic Researchaccessed 2026-10-09