A Hard-Landing Recession 'Certainly by the End of '23'
Stanley Druckenmiller, September 2022: 'I Will Be Stunned If We Don't Have a Recession in '23'
The billionaire macro investor told CNBC's Delivering Alpha conference that Fed tightening after an asset bubble made a 2023 recession his forecast, possibly a big one.
What was said
“I will be stunned if we don't have a recession in '23”
— Stanley Druckenmiller (investor, Duquesne Family Office) · said Sep 28, 2022 · due By the end of 2023
No recession in 2023. The NBER chronology has no business-cycle peak after February 2020.
The fine print
Full quote: 'I will be stunned if we don't have a recession in '23. Don't know the timing, but certainly by the end of '23.' Also: 'So our central case is a hard landing by the end of '23.' He did add, 'I've been wrong on a lot of things. I could be wrong on this, but since I do it for a living, that's our forecast.' Other 2023 calls: hanke-recession-2023, roubini-recession-2023, bloomberg-recession-2023.
Sources
- Stanley Druckenmiller: I'll Be Stunned If We Don't Have A Recession In 2023 - RealClearPolitics (September 28, 2022)accessed 2026-10-09
- Investor Druckenmiller sees U.S. falling into recession next year - Reuters (September 28, 2022)accessed 2026-10-09
- US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions - National Bureau of Economic Researchaccessed 2026-10-09