The U.S. Is Tipping Into a New Recession, and Nothing Can Stop It
ECRI, September 30, 2011: A New Recession, and 'Nothing That Policy Makers Can Do to Head It Off'
The forecasting shop with a famous record of calling downturns told clients a new U.S. recession was locked in. The official record shows the expansion ran until February 2020.
What was said
“Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there's nothing that policy makers can do to head it off.”
— Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI; co-founder Lakshman Achuthan) · said Sep 30, 2011 · due Starting by the first half of 2012
No recession. The NBER's chronology has the expansion that began in June 2009 running unbroken to a peak in February 2020.
The Story
From ECRI's public statement 'U.S. Economy Tipping Into Recession,' released September 30, 2011. It added: 'Here's what ECRI's recession call really says: if you think this is a bad economy, you haven't seen anything yet.'
Financial Sense reported that Achuthan said the start date 'extends though the first half of 2012.' Other recession calls: bloomberg-recession-2023, cameron-osborne-brexit-recession-2016.
Receipts
- ECRI Recession Statement Of September 30 - Notable Excerpts - EconomicGreenfield (October 3, 2011)accessed 2026-10-09
- Evaluating ECRI's Recession Call - Financial Sense (Doug Short)accessed 2026-10-09
- US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions - National Bureau of Economic Researchaccessed 2026-10-09
As of Oct 9, 2026
since it didn't happen
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