Ice-Free Arctic Summers Within Five to Seven Years
Ice-Free Arctic Summer Due by 2016; Arctic Keeps Its Ice
At COP15, Al Gore cited a '75 percent chance' that the summer polar ice cap would be completely ice-free within five to seven years.
What was said
“Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months will be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years.”
— Al Gore, former US Vice President (citing modelling by Wieslaw Maslowski) · said Dec 14, 2009 · due 2014-2016 (five to seven years out)
Summer 2016 came and went without an ice-free Arctic, and the 2026 minimum was still 4.60 million km². The ice really is shrinking. It just ignored the deadline.
Then vs Now
Promised: north polar ice cap completely ice-free during summer within 5 to 7 years
Arctic sea-ice minimum extent at close of forecast window (September 2016) (as of 2016-09)
The Story
Said at the COP15 climate conference in Copenhagen on 14 December 2009, citing modelling by Wieslaw Maslowski. Five to seven years ran out in December 2016. NSIDC put the 2026 minimum at 4.60 million km².
Later spin
Maslowski told the Telegraph: 'I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this', and said he'd meant near-ice-free. Gore's office said he meant 'nearly ice-free'.
Receipts
- Palin vs. Gore Climate Showdown - FactCheck.orgaccessed 2026-09-29
- Al Gore Slips On Arctic Ice; Misstates Scientist's Forecast - NPRaccessed 2026-09-29
- Sea Ice Today - National Snow and Ice Data Centeraccessed 2026-09-29
As of Oct 9, 2026
since it didn't happen
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