'One Whopper of a Recession' in 2023
Economist Steve Hanke, August 2022: 'We're Going to Have One Whopper of a Recession in 2023'
The Johns Hopkins money-supply economist said a big U.S. recession was coming in 2023, then said it was 'baked in the cake.' When it didn't come, he moved it to 2024. That didn't come either.
What was said
“We're going to have one whopper of a recession in 2023.”
— Steve Hanke (professor of applied economics, Johns Hopkins University) · said Aug 29, 2022 · due 2023
No recession in 2023 or 2024. The NBER chronology has no business-cycle peak after February 2020.
The Story
From a CNBC Street Signs Asia interview. In April 2023 he repeated: 'We know the recession is baked in the cake.' By August 2023: 'We believe that a recession is baked in the cake and will commence during the first half of 2024.'
He told Gelman that he and John Greenwood 'changed our forecast, but not our model.' Other recession calls: bloomberg-recession-2023, roubini-recession-2023, ecri-recession-2011.
Later spin
He moved the start to the first half of 2024, then to late 2024: 'we changed our forecast, but not our model.'
Receipts
- Steve Hanke says we're going to have one 'whopper' of a recession in 2023 - CNBC (August 29, 2022)accessed 2026-10-09
- Whassup with those economists who predicted a recession that then didn't happen? - Andrew Gelman, Statistical Modeling (Columbia)accessed 2026-10-09
- Top economist Steve Hanke says stocks look expensive - and a recession is 'right around the corner' - Business Insider (August 25, 2023)accessed 2026-10-09
- US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions - National Bureau of Economic Researchaccessed 2026-10-09