'I'd Give Us Until 2020 at the Latest'
Near-Term Extinction Essay: 'I'd Give Us Until 2020 at the Latest'
In his 2012 essay 'We're Done', Guy McPherson gave people in continental interiors until 2020. Continental interiors are still inhabited.
What was said
“For those of us living in the interior of a large continent, much less on a rock-pile in the desert, I'd give us until 2020 at the latest.”
— Guy McPherson, professor emeritus, University of Arizona (essay 'We're Done', Countercurrents) · said Jun 21, 2012 · due 2020 at the latest
2020 was a rough year, but the interiors of large continents made it through with their populations intact.
The fine print
The same essay says: 'I concluded in 2002 that we had set into motion climate-change processes likely to cause our own extinction by 2030.' The 2020 line, about people in continental interiors, is the dated one tracked here. His 2026 forecast is a separate entry.
Sources
- We're Done - Guy McPherson, Countercurrents (June 21, 2012)accessed 2026-09-29