Elliott Wave Forecaster: Dow Headed 'Well Below 1,000.' It Headed for 20,000 Instead.

In July 2010 Robert Prechter told the New York Times the Dow would likely sink below 1,000 within five or six years, amid depression and deflation. In January 2017 it closed above 20,000.

What was claimed (paraphrase)

The Dow, which now stands at 9,686.48, is likely to fall well below 1,000 over perhaps five or six years as a grand market cycle comes to an end, he said. (The New York Times's summary of his forecast.)

— Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave International (interviewed by The New York Times) · said Jul 4, 2010 · due five or six years from July 2010 (mid-2015 to mid-2016)

Well below 1,000 never came. The Dow closed above 20,000 for the first time on January 25, 2017.

Then vs Now

Then

Promised: Dow Jones Industrial Average headed "well below 1,000"

Now

50,906.05

Dow Jones Industrial Average level (as of 2026-09)

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / S&P Dow Jones Indices · retrieved 2026-09-30

The Story

New York Times 'Strategies' column, July 4, 2010.

He said the unraveling, 'combined with a depression and deflation', would make anyone holding cash 'extremely grateful for their prudence', and added: 'If I'm right, it will be such a shock that people will be telling their grandkids many years from now, "Don't touch stocks."'

Receipts

A Market Forecast That Says 'Take Cover' - The New York Times (July 4, 2010), via the Internet Archiveaccessed 2026-09-29
Closing milestones of the Dow Jones Industrial Average - Wikipediaaccessed 2026-09-29

As of Oct 9, 2026

10 yearsy, 2 monthsm, 8 daysd

since it didn't happen

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