Soil Scientist, 1981: First Big Forests 'Will Die in the Next Five Years.' The Big Forests Stayed Put

A Göttingen professor told DER SPIEGEL's 1981 acid-rain series that the first big forests could no longer be saved. Germany later counted over a million more hectares of forest.

What was said

“Die ersten großen Wälder werden schon in den nächsten fünf Jahren sterben. Sie sind nicht mehr zu retten.” Our translation: “The first big forests will die within the next five years. They can no longer be saved.”

— Prof. Bernhard Ulrich (soil scientist, University of Göttingen), quoted in DER SPIEGEL · said Nov 15, 1981 · due By November 1986 (five years from November 1981)

Some high-ridge stands in the Harz and the Ore Mountains did die back. The first big forests did not: DER SPIEGEL found the feared large-scale Waldsterben never arrived.

The Story

In November 1981, DER SPIEGEL opened a three-part series on acid rain, and a Göttingen soil scientist gave Germany's first big forests five years. Professor Bernhard Ulrich said they were already beyond saving.

The Panic

The series, 'Da liegt was in der Luft' (Our translation: 'There's something in the air'), set off the national Waldsterben debate: forest death.

Ulrich blamed air pollution, chiefly sulphur dioxide. There was no 'could' in what he said.

The Forests

Five years passed, then nearly thirty more. Some stands did die, in parts of the Fichtel and Ore Mountains and the Harz.

The large-scale Waldsterben across Germany did not happen, DER SPIEGEL reported in 2015.

The national forest inventory it cited counted 11.4 million hectares of forest. That was over a million hectares more than in the early 1980s, when the forests could no longer be saved.

Later spin

In a 1995 review in Environmental Reviews, Ulrich wrote: 'The hypothesis, however, of large-scale forest dieback in the near future is not backed by data and can be discarded.'

In 1999 he stressed to the taz that individual forests had died as he predicted, above all on high ridges in the Black Forest, Upper Harz and Ore Mountains (taz's paraphrase).

In 2015 he told SPIEGEL ONLINE that politicians had acted in time: „Sonst wären große Teile des Waldes schwer geschädigt worden, wie in den Mittelgebirgen.“ (Our translation: 'Otherwise large parts of the forest would have been badly damaged, as in the low mountain ranges.')

Receipts

Printed in DER SPIEGEL 47/1981 (online archive date November 15, 1981), the opening part of the magazine's three-part acid-rain series.

„Die ersten großen Wälder“, sagt der Göttinger Bodenkundler Professor Bernhard Ulrich, „werden schon in den nächsten fünf Jahren sterben. Sie sind nicht mehr zu retten.“ (Our translation: 'The first big forests,' says the Göttingen soil scientist Professor Bernhard Ulrich, 'will die within the next five years. They can no longer be saved.')

Some later accounts date the line to an interview with the Hamburger Abendblatt on October 10, 1981.

The forest outcome and the 11.4 million hectares: DER SPIEGEL, 'Was wurde eigentlich aus dem Waldsterben?' (Our translation: 'Whatever happened to forest death?'), January 3, 2015.

As of Oct 9, 2026

39 yearsy, 11 monthsm, 8 daysd

since it didn't happen

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