Final Collapse of Arctic Summer Sea Ice by 2015-16
'Final Collapse' of Summer Sea Ice Pencilled In for 2015-16
A Cambridge ice expert said the summer Arctic would be ice-free by 2015-16. The 2026 minimum was 4.60 million km².
What was said
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates.”
— Prof. Peter Wadhams, University of Cambridge · said Sep 17, 2012 · due summer 2015-16
A decade later, on September 12, 2026, NSIDC put the minimum at 4.60 million km², tied for tenth-lowest on record. Shrinking? Yes. Gone? Not even close.
Then vs Now
Promised: summer Arctic (August to September) completely ice-free by 2015-16
Arctic sea-ice minimum extent (September 2016) (as of 2016-09)
The Story
Quoted in The Guardian on 17 September 2012, after a record-low minimum of under 3.5 million km². For honest perspective: NSIDC says the last 20 years (2007-2026) have the 20 lowest extents in the satellite record. The trend is real; the 2015-16 deadline wasn't.
Receipts
- Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years - The Guardianaccessed 2026-09-29
- Sea Ice Today - National Snow and Ice Data Centeraccessed 2026-09-29