Y2K Recession: 70% Chance
Wall Street Economist Put Odds of a Y2K Worldwide Recession at 70%. The Bug Failed to Recess Anything
Ed Yardeni's 1998 estimate: a 70% chance Y2K would cause a worldwide recession as bad as the 1973 oil-embargo slump. 'Alarm is a constructive emotion,' he said.
What was claimed (paraphrase)
By Yardeni's most recent estimate, there is a 70% chance that Y2K will cause a worldwide recession as bad as the one sparked by the 1973 OPEC oil embargo.
— Edward Yardeni, chief economist, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell · said Jul 20, 1998 · due 2000 (Y2K)
Y2K came and went without the worldwide recession. At 70%, the odds were on his side; the bug wasn't.
The fine print
The Los Angeles Times (July 20, 1998) reported the estimate in its own words, so quote_is_paraphrase is true; it was up from 30% the previous summer. Yardeni in the same article: 'I'm not looking to panic people. I'm looking to alarm them. Alarm is a constructive emotion.' Odds rather than certainty are the hedge, but a 70% call on a named year is a forecast.
Sources
As of Oct 9, 2026
since it didn't happen
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